Article Dans Une Revue Nature Communications Année : 2019

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

1 PIK - Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
2 UON - University of Nottingham, UK
3 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
4 ECNU - East China Normal University [Shangaï]
5 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
6 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
7 University of Chicago
8 Institut d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique [Liège]
9 Dalhousie University [Halifax]
10 IAC - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich]
11 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
12 ESTIMR - Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation
13 IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]
14 Inst Landscape Ecol & Resources Management
15 UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal
16 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
17 Department of Geography
18 CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
19 Department of Geosciences [Oslo]
20 NIES - National Institute for Environmental Studies
21 IIS - Institute of Industrial Science [Tokyo]
22 GIMAP - Groupe Immunité des Muqueuses et Agents Pathogènes
23 Goethe University Frankfurt = Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main
24 CEE - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor]
25 IMK - Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research
26 BOKU - Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences [Vienne, Autriche]
27 GKSS - Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht
28 Ecopath International Initiative Research Association
29 SDAU - Shandong Agricultural University
30 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
Marta Coll
Tyler Eddy
  • Fonction : Auteur
Christian Folberth
Catherine Morfopoulos
  • Fonction : Auteur
René Orth
Gen Sakurai
  • Fonction : Auteur
Yusuke Satoh
  • Fonction : Auteur
Tobias Stacke
Jörg Steinkamp
  • Fonction : Auteur
Qiuhong Tang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Hanqin Tian
Derek Tittensor
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

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hal-02895259 , version 1 (17-09-2020)

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Jacob Schewe, Simon Gosling, Christopher Reyer, Fang Zhao, Philippe Ciais, et al.. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes. Nature Communications, 2019, 10 (1), pp.1005. ⟨10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6⟩. ⟨hal-02895259⟩
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